2026 Real Estate Predictions: The Great Stall, Seattle Signals & Smart Plays

Christian: [0:00] Hello, hello, and welcome to another episode of the Awesome in Seattle podcast. This is your host, Christian Awesome, with the Awesome Nossum Group at Wilson Realty Exchange, Inc. And today, we are talking about our 2026 Seattle area real estate market predictions. Ooh. One of the best episodes of the year. Super fun. Uh, all right. So let me explain who we got with us. Let me introduce my fellow agents here on the Awesome Nossum Group. First, ladies first, of course.

Joanna: [0:26] I'm Joanna Beecher. Hello.

Varun: [0:29] Hey, I'm Varun Jain.

Christian: [0:30] And today, we are gonna go over all things real estate predictions. So we are gonna go over who said what. We'll, we'll look at what Zillow, Redfin, National Association of Realtors, Fannie Mae, the Northwest MLS, basically every major data source. Whoever said a prediction, we gathered it, that was legit. There's a lot of people that made predictions, but we're like, "Who are you? You have no credentials. We're not gonna- pay attention to these." Love those guys. Yeah. I

Joanna: [0:56] love those guys.

Christian: [0:57] Um, we're gonna see what the big theme is. Uh, and the biggest theme is this, no one is predicting a crash. So those crash bros out there that are always rooting for a crash, probably not gonna happen, very unlikely. It's always a possibility, very small possibility, though. We're also not gonna see a giant boom. Uh, but most likely, we're going to see a bit of a stall, uh, more of the same-ish. So a lot of people are just waiting, buyers, sellers, investors, um, and we're gonna break down exactly what's going on nationally, what's happening specifically for Seattle, where w- rates are likely headed. We're gonna talk, have Dan Keller with New American Funding join us, uh, what investors should be doing-

Dan: [1:45] Yeah … Speaker: where some opportunities are, what end buyers, so normal buyers, should be targeting to make some money and have a better deal. And finally, we will give our own personal predictions and review our predictions from last year, which are very interesting. Um, very, very interesting. So stay for that. That's at the very end. So let's start big picture. Uh, nationwide, this is kind of where it's kinda more of the same, what happened last year. So if you listen to our last episode, which was the 2025 Real Estate Market, uh, Recap episode, we talked about how nationally, um, home prices went up around 1 to 2%, depending on what stats you were looking at and who you were listening to. So kind of the great stall. That's kinda more of the same that people- Yeah … are looking for this year. Um- Sources like Zillow, Redfin, National Association of Realtors, Fannie Mae they're all surprisingly aligned on that they're all expected they're all saying they expect home prices to raise, but just barely. Maybe one, maybe 2%, maybe even nothing. But they're not really going down. And if they do, again, maybe one or 2% down. Um, sales volume, they're expecting a little bit more sales volume, uh, more than 2024 and 2025, but still well beyond our normal years where we have enough inventory to support the demand that's out there. What is causing this stall? Why is this happening? The big reason is mortgage rates are still in the low sixes. Uh, sellers, there's still a lot of them that are locked into those 3% COVID-year mortgage rates, interest rates that just don't wanna sell. Mm-hmm. They feel like they're handcuffed, they don't wanna move, and they won't. So there's a lot of people that could sell, but are choosing not to. And then buyers, they're just cautious about the economy, about the world, about their job security, and that's all understandable. So until they get some more confidence inside of themselves to make a move, they're just sitting on the sidelines. So with all of this, you're not getting a lot of momentum. You're getting a little more friction. Uh, there's not a lot of fear, it's just a lot of hesitation. So let's go over the Seattle-specific predictions. Uh, Joanna, so, um, Seattle always kind of plays by its own rules. That's right. What are y- Yeah. Mm-hmm. We, we're our own little beast. Uh, what are, what are the, the quote unquote experts saying in the media about Seattle?

Joanna: [4:19] Well, they have been saying, like, Seattle maybe is up slightly, or Seattle lags national average, which, you know, that's not a shock. We are surrounded by water and mountains.

Christian: [4:30] Mm-hmm.

Joanna: [4:31] Um, so I mean, I guess that's technically true, but I think it needs some context, right? Yeah. Uh, for example, like Zillow Seattle/Tacoma/Bellevue forecast actually, uh, shows slight softness. I don't, I don't even like saying that. Um- … sometimes even small declines. And, sure, I think that's where you need that context- Mm-hmm … is, like, but why? Where is that happening? And I think you could elaborate a little bit on that.

Christian: [4:59] Yeah. I mean, Zillow's lumping Seattle, Tacoma, and Bellevue. So it's- They're different … a d- and Everett in there as well. So a ton of suburbs, a ton of, like a vast area.

Varun: [5:10] That's huge. Yeah. That's like v-

Joanna: [5:12] That's a state. That's like the state- … of Delaware. That's

Varun: [5:15] a state. Yeah, that's a state. We don't care about the eastern part. Yeah. No. But, but again, it, it's unfair to club these very different markets together, which operate in different price points. Very. Like Seattle is right around the million dollar mark, and Bellevue is around the $2 million mark. You would never club them together in the same data set. And then

Joanna: [5:33] you add

Varun: [5:33] Tacoma. So again, it creates a different- Mm … take on 2026.

Joanna: [5:36] Yes. Um-

Christian: [5:37] Yeah. You throw Tacoma and Everett in there, and there's, there's

Joanna: [5:39] two different markets as well. So we don't like that, and those are mm-mm. No.

Christian: [5:42] Yeah.

Joanna: [5:42] We- Very much separate those here- Mm-hmm … at this table. Yeah Because it, what makes sense-

Christian: [5:48] Well, just for- … to our

Joanna: [5:49] buyers

Christian: [5:50] and for clarity, like last year, Seattle single-family homes went up 4.3%. Mm-hmm. And the East Side went down a little un- little more than half a percent.

Joanna: [6:00] Exactly.

Christian: [6:01] So two different markets. And they're

Joanna: [6:03] just very different buyers- Mm-hmm. Yeah … in each of these spaces. Yeah. So that's like putting them together is silliness in my mind. Um, they're in the Pacific Northwest, so what? That doesn't-

Varun: [6:14] Right … Joanna: make a difference. Um, but let's talk about like when you actually just bring Seattle core neighborhoods. Mm-hmm. Okay, what can we expect there? So flat probably to maybe slightly up in pricing. Um, starting 2026 so far, we're already seeing certain homes that are just- Mm-hmm really coming out of the gate strong and having competitions with, uh, their offers. Um, I do think, you know, way more selectivity- Yeah … Joanna: is gonna be important here. Um, especially coming out of the 2025 market. I think buyers were coming into that market, and they have just r- I think the learning curve has, you know, gotten better for them. Mm-hmm. Um, so they know what to look for. Yep. And, you know, the, the homes that are just okay are gonna sit. Yeah.

Joanna: [7:04] And that's just continuing on, you know, like that selectivity.

Christian: [7:08] Mm-hmm.

Joanna: [7:09] If you're not hitting, not, those eyes aren't seeing it, and the prices aren't right, it's gonna sit. Um, and then homes that are great, they move fast.

Christian: [7:16] Yeah. And that's kind of the trend that we've seen basically forever. I mean, I've been doing this 21 years now. I was gonna say, it hasn't

Joanna: [7:22] changed really.

Christian: [7:23] It's always the same. A good house that's priced correctly generally sells quick, whatever that means, depending on the market. Mm-hmm. Quick could be a matter of three days. It could be two weeks if the market's super dead, so quick in relative terms.

Varun: [7:38] Yes.

Dan: [7:38] Yeah.

Christian: [7:39] And that's always been the case, and that will always be the case. Mm-hmm. It's just what is your, your market doing right this minute, and- I mean, Varun, actually all three of us have seen already, we're in the, it's January, what, 21st as the day that we are recording this. Yeah. And we've already seen a handful of listings that had multiple offers this year.

Varun: [8:01] Yeah, like seven offers, nine offers, and very competitive. Yeah. Like 100K over asking, 200K over asking, and I w- to be honest, I wasn't expecting it to be that competitive coming out of 2025. Mm-hmm. Yeah. But we've hit the gates running in 2026. Yes.

Joanna: [8:17] On the flip side of that, though, I still have clients that have gotten in on homes in different neighborhoods than what we're talking about. Mm-hmm. And it's not competitive. These homes have been sitting.

Christian: [8:27] Yeah.

Joanna: [8:27] Because whenever they were listed, for whatever reason, pricing, whatever it may be, the list can, you know, contain several different issues. Mm-hmm. But they missed the market, and now they're catching up. Yeah. And, you know, there are still deals to be had right now. Yes.

Christian: [8:44] 100%.

Joanna: [8:44] Yeah.

Christian: [8:45] Yeah, and that just goes to show you need to learn your market-

Joanna: [8:49] Mm-hmm … Speaker: and have a fantastic agent on your team that can help you spot the opportunities and help you prepare for, uh, a potential competitive situation.

Varun: [8:59] Yes. Yeah.

Christian: [9:01] Obviously, we pay attention to this a lot, so we would love to help you. Um, let's continue on with what we're seeing and what we're reading in some of these, quote-unquote, experts. Uh, so the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, so what that is, every agent almost in the entire state of Washington, every broker I should say, uh, belongs to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Every time we represent a seller, we get a listing, that's what that's called. We have to input that into the Northwest MLS. That is then distributed out to all the other websites, um, that show homes for sale. If they are, uh, technically brokers themselves, they get a direct data feed. People that don't get direct data feeds, they don't always have the most up-up-to-date information. Anyway, what the Northwest MLS is saying, they are predicting that inventory will increase, that buyers will start to have a little more bit of options, and that pricing power is gonna depend on execution. So kinda more of the same- Yeah … what we just said as well. Um, let's talk rates. Dan, let's bring you on and have you explain kinda what your crystal ball is saying for- for 2026. I know you love to say crystal ball, so let's- let's see what you have to say.

Dan: [10:13] Hey, Christian and team. Thanks for having me in to give you my, I don't love this word, but the crystal ball for 2026. I don't use the word crystal ball because I always use this analogy. If you were to go to a doctor and ask, and as you're heading into surgery, ask a physician, "Hey, if you had a crystal ball, how am I gonna, how am I gonna come out of this?" The correct answer that I'm looking for in a physician, and this is what I believe you guys listening to this or watching this is looking for, is through hundreds of thousands or thousands of similar operations like this, here's what the data shows. Here's what I've seen as I've done shoulder replacement surgeries, right? That, hey, within four to six weeks, you're gonna have X number range of motion, all of this good stuff. So relative to mortgage rates, 18 years in the mortgage industry, three and a half recessions, I've seen a lot of markets very similar to this. This is what I know. I know that the market is super stable right now. This is good. We've seen rates- in the low sixes now for almost four, five months. This is a good thing. Now, these, these are some things, instead of me predicting what 30-year fixed rates are gonna do in 2026, I believe they're gonna stay right around the same. I don't think there's anything crazy that's gonna drop rates. I don't think there's anything crazy that's gonna rise rates. Now, here's what you need to know, though. What could cause interest rates to drop? People are like, "I'm holding out for 3% rates like we saw back in 2020." You'll be holding out for years, or better yet, you'll be holding out for another pandemic or a world war. That's really the two main things that drop interest rates. Now, he- or a natural disaster. Now, speaking of, like, world events, we got a lot going on in the world right now with other countries. Things like that could cause mortgage rates to drop a little, but not down into the threes or the fours. I think we're in a very stable range A lot of the top three or four entities that I follow, Fannie Mae, realtor.com, Mortgage Bankers Association, and MBS Highway with Bear Habib, all of them are predicting anywhere between 5.75 and 6.25 30-year fixed rates in 2026, and I'm right there. I think rates are gonna stay right where they're at right now. But it's important to understand what could cause rates to drop, and that's what we talked about earlier. So bottom line, we've got stability in the markets, which is very healthy. I think we're gonna see continued stability through 2026. It's a healthy market, and I'm seeing a lot. Just in the first quarter of 2026, we're seeing a lot more consumer confidence, which is really good, and stability breeds confidence. So I hope this was helpful, you guys. Thanks again for having me in to give my 2026 projections.

Christian: [13:00] All right. So let's go over investor predictions for 2026. So what are, what are investors kinda thinking and foreseeing, and what do you think is gonna happen there? What strategies are gonna work and just absolutely kill normal, uh normal strategies?

Varun: [13:15] Yeah. So I think, uh, just to set the stage right, um, in Seattle, we do see a lot of detached accili- accessory dwelling units. This is like your backyard cottage or the mother-in-law suite. Mm-hmm. Most investors build a standard model, which is the ERIS model- Yep which is a three bedrooms, two and a half bath with a one-car garage, 1,000 square foot. Very easy. Gets, gets through permits faster. It's a known entity.

Christian: [13:42] Yeah.

Varun: [13:42] I do think you're gonna see people move away from that.

A couple of reasons for that: [13:45] one, that 1,000 square foot still feels tight, um, um, and we've gotten feedback on that. But, uh, that's what's available today. That's what everyone's building.

Christian: [13:55] Mm-hmm.

Varun: [13:56] Seattle's also changed their code to allow for a bigger DADU.

Christian: [14:00] Yeah.

Varun: [14:00] So we are now going to move towards the 1,200 square foot DADU, which is more like a good size starter home.

Christian: [14:08] Yep.

Varun: [14:08] Uh, and I think we're gonna see that. We're gonna probably start seeing a lot more DADUs with two-car garages because people do want extra parking space, and that's been kinda one of the-

Christian: [14:19] And storage

Varun: [14:20] and storage. And that's- Storage … kinda one of the things that every investor's been hearing.

Christian: [14:24] Yeah.

Varun: [14:24] But now the code allows for that ex- extra room. So I think we are going to see the Eras Dadu phase out and eventually just be, like, a dead plan, and we are gonna see a, hopefully a new plan emerge that's more of, like, a bigger Dadu, more storage, more parking.

Christian: [14:41] Yeah. Yeah, I totally agree with you. I mean, we've both built the Eras numerous times. Um, and it, for 1,000 square feet, it was the best plan available- Yeah … if it fit on the lot. Now that the new rules in January 2026 changed for Seattle, now you can do 1,200 square feet. That plan just doesn't make the most sense.

Joanna: [15:01] Yeah. Is it easy to customize a Dadu build?

Christian: [15:04] You can customize it. It's just how long does it take to get the permits? Got it. And so by building something that's a known entity for the city, like the same- It's just- … plan over and over- Streamlined … permits get streamlined much faster. Yeah. And that's what happened with the Eras.

Varun: [15:16] That's exactly what happened- Yeah … with the Eras. Um-

Christian: [15:18] And hopefully that'll happen with the new plan soon. We just don't know what that is yet, so.

Varun: [15:21] Yeah. Um, and then the other big piece is the Seattle, uh, One Plan, which increases density, adds a lot more options for investors, which also kinda leads to more competitions and- More investors chasing the easy deal. Mm-hmm. We do-- We've seen a influx of newbie investors in the last few couple of years who are trying to get the quick DADU play in and out, which has led to increase in prices of the DADU lots. We've talked about that in our previous episode as well.

Christian: [15:55] Mm-hmm.

Varun: [15:56] I think we're gonna see more of that as well. So for investors, it'd be very critical to keep an eye on, um, these opportunities as they come through, underwrite them carefully, make sure your ARVs are pretty tight. Um,

Christian: [16:10] I'd say to piggyback on that, too, on the, the One Seattle plan, now you are allowed to build four units, potentially six units on any lot in Seattle. Depending on if you're close to transit, you can do six units or if you add affordable housing. Just because you can build- We talk about this all the time. Yeah. Just because you can build four or six units doesn't mean you should.

Varun: [16:34] Right. Like, I think a lot of the buyers, and we talk about what, how buyers are getting more sophisticated.

Christian: [16:40] Yeah.

Joanna: [16:41] Mm-hmm.

Varun: [16:41] A lot of the buyers don't like the shared walls anymore. Mm. So if you have, like, a six unit play, but it is two… three duplexes or three, three, two three packs, then the shared wall issue comes up again, and that kind of could kill your deal. Yeah. So be smart about what you're doing. The other aspect to building density is DADUs are easier to build because you can tie into existing utilities. As you add more units, the city can then force you to upgrade utilities on the lot on the street. Yeah. And that adds up very quickly. If you didn't underwrite that or your deal did not have enough margin, you could be either breaking even, worst case scenario, you will be in the red. I

Christian: [17:23] mean, you had a situation where you wanted to build a new house on a lot, and they wanted you to update the entire water line- Yeah for how many feet?

Varun: [17:32] They wanted me to update the eight-inch water line and pull it up to half the way up the block. Uh, and it was 190 feet, and they quoted, the city quoted about $1,500 a linear square feet. That's just under 300,000. And that kills

Christian: [17:49] the deal. Just to replace the water line.

Joanna: [17:50] Oh my

Varun: [17:51] God. Yeah. And that… So assumption is if your water line's update, it needs update, I'm guessing the sewer also needs update. So those costs will add up very fast. So just be careful about knowing these upfront. Luckily, like, that is a house that I already own. It's a rental. I was gonna think about demoing it and building something, and I didn't have to kind of get under contract, but this is the thing you wanna look out for- Mm-hmm before you get under contract.

Joanna: [18:14] I wanna say something quickly that I think investors should also be thinking about, um, as buyers become more savvy- Mm-hmm … and really knowing what they want is that lifestyle piece that- Totally … we talked about. Yes. Um, there are more dogs in the city than kids. Yes.

Varun: [18:31] Yeah. Yes. That is true. It's so true.

Joanna: [18:33] And green space- Mm-hmm … is- So important. It's, like, one of the top things on the list that all of my buyers are looking for, which is why those apartment-style condos are just no- not a lot of people want them.

Christian: [18:48] Yeah. Yeah. It's a non-starter for most people.

Joanna: [18:50] So I think that's- Yeah … you know, the shared, maybe a shared wall, like a town home situation, if there's a little bit of green space that can be their own-

Christian: [18:58] Mm-hmm

Joanna: [18:59] that is a game-changer.

Christian: [19:00] We joke about it all the time, but I think it's with some, a grain of truth in there. If you don't have to put on your pants to let your dog out-

Joanna: [19:07] Oh, it's- … or

Christian: [19:07] to the bathroom-

Joanna: [19:08] It's the biggest

Christian: [19:09] We're not jo- It's

Joanna: [19:10] amazing.

Christian: [19:11] Like, it's, that's really what we hear people say.

Joanna: [19:12] Yeah. Why do you think I bought a house this year? Yeah, exactly. Or, sorry, 2025.

Christian: [19:17] Yeah.

Varun: [19:17] Yeah.

Christian: [19:18] It's

Joanna: [19:18] a big piece. No,

Varun: [19:18] that's true.

Joanna: [19:19] Yeah.

Varun: [19:19] Um, the third thing for investors, uh, on market deals are back. I bought a few last year for myself and for, uh, my investors. I think that's gonna happen again in 2026 as buyers are still a little hesitant jumping in, in, on lot of the deals. And so keep an eye out on the market. Mm-hmm. It's not necessarily that good deals are coming through the off-market pipeline. Look at on-market listings as well. The last thing I'd add is- If you're buying off-market deals, pay close attention for the new Washington rules. We did a podcast episode, episode 152, about wholesaling in Washington State, and how that, those rules are changing. So if you're d- going to buy- Something off-market … at off-market, make sure everything is done correctly and all the paperwork is in line so that the seller doesn't just walk away from the deal after you've spent one, two, three months working on that deal.

Christian: [20:14] And a bunch of money, most likely.

Varun: [20:15] Yeah.

Christian: [20:16] Yeah. Okay, so let's talk about a normal home buyer and what everyone is predicting for that. So Joanna, I'm gonna throw this to you. Yeah. What are, what are we expecting for a normal quote unquote normal- … uh, like a, just a regular old home buyer. Regular old home buyer. What are we, what are they expected to see happen in 2026?

Joanna: [20:32] Um, I do wanna say, I think right out of the gate, I think a lot of, uh, the buyers I was talking to were really excited. Mm-hmm. Yep. I think how quickly that has tapered to being a little bit more nervous, like within weeks-

Christian: [20:45] Mm-hmm … Joanna: is just indicative what's, what's happening globally. Um- Totally, yeah … economy-wise, uh- Yeah … Joanna: potential wars, uh, inflation. Mm-hmm. And there is that looming uncertainty, and I think that's very important to pay attention to, um, 'cause we all feel it. Um, but what I do think would be great is when we do see some stabilization, hopefully that's right around the corner, um, I think that will increase our buyers' confidence. Yes. And I think buyers will very much feel strongly about coming back and getting into the market, which you should, um, I think as soon as you can. Um, but yeah, so some of, uh, for the first time home buyers, uh, the best targets in '26 are starter homes. I did one of those in 2025. Mm-hmm.

Joanna: [21:33] It's a great option. Mm-hmm. Um, town homes, I mean, you can get some really solid deals on some town homes- Yeah … in a lot of different neighborhoods right now. Yep.

Christian: [21:41] Yes. We talked about this in the last episode. Some of

Joanna: [21:43] our hottest neighborhoods.

Christian: [21:44] Yeah. Some town homes, for some reason, are not as desirable.

Joanna: [21:48] They really stalled out and-

Christian: [21:50] And yeah, they completely stalled, and actually went down in value- Down … in Seattle.

Joanna: [21:53] Which is kind of mind-blowing.

Christian: [21:55] Yeah. So you can get some deals on town homes in a fantastic walkable neighborhood.

Joanna: [22:00] Yeah.

Christian: [22:01] Um-

Joanna: [22:02] For very affordable. I mean, shockingly affordable. Yes. So.

Christian: [22:06] Fantastic deals. So definitely keep an eye on

Varun: [22:08] those. Yes. Yeah, if you're a home buyer looking for, um, just a first time home and you don't actually need that green space that we talked about, and you're okay buying a town home because you wanna start building equity- Townhome or a condo in a right neighborhood is a great starting point- Mm-hmm because those values right now in Seattle are very suppressed. Yeah.

Joanna: [22:27] The cool thing about some of the townhomes that don't have technically green space, yard space, a lot of them have rooftop decks. Mm-hmm.

Varun: [22:34] That's true.

Joanna: [22:34] And, you know, if you're a dog person and you can get your dog to go on a, like - A pee pad thing a pee pad or l- you know- Or the grass … fake grass- Yeah … or real grass that you can get delivered, great option.

Christian: [22:45] Yeah.

Joanna: [22:45] Um-

Christian: [22:45] Totally agree. There are some deals there, for sure.

Joanna: [22:47] There. Uh, so a- another one to kind of look into a bit more seriously is the detached additional dwelling unit, the backyard cottage. I-

Christian: [22:55] The DADUs

Joanna: [22:56] I, you know, very strongly agree with this. I think you can get some really solid deals, um, on that. Mm-hmm. Look in Magnolia. Um- Mm-hmm … uh, not only there. There are, uh, in a lot of places. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But there is one specifically I'm thinking of right now. Um- And then, you know, looking for house hack opportunities. Uh, like a lot of our clients, you know, Varun helped our f- Seattle front page YouTube

Christian: [23:21] client. Seattle

Joanna: [23:22] Times front page. The Seattle Times front page client. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Headliner. I mean, there's, there's good deals out there to be had in that way.

Christian: [23:26] Um- Yeah. And if you wanna learn about that, he was the front page of Seattle Times. I think it was, the article was titled, like, "How Gen Z Buyers Are Buying Homes- Yeah … in Seattle."

Joanna: [23:36] Um-

Christian: [23:36] Something similar to that. Yeah.

Joanna: [23:37] So yeah, these offer flexibility, and there is a long-term upside to those as well. Mm-hmm. Um, so now if you're buying for the second time, third time, uh, you can afford to be a bit more picky, right? Mm-hmm. Well, you're already in a home, so you can take your time. You don't feel as strapped to maybe stop paying rent or something. Um, you don't feel as pressured to being able to customize your own space. Um- But you wanna know your buy box- Yes … really well as well. Um, which is also helpful when you have a knowledgeable agent on your side. Um, the good thing to know is also when you have all of that clarity, just you need to be prepared because you gotta jump on that when you see it come-

Christian: [24:26] Yeah … Joanna: your way. Do your homework. And we did, we did just record a podcast, one of the la- I don't, I think it's might've been the last one or two or three episodes right before this, um, where we talk about how to buy and sell- Mm your house at the same time. So how to move up, how that logistically- Yeah … works. 'Cause it is complicated. It can be complicated. Um, there are some really solid options out there, um, but you gotta prepare ahead of time, so definitely reach out.

Varun: [24:52] Episode 154.

Christian: [24:53] Episode 154, thank you. Um, how to buy and sell your Seattle home at the same time, um-

Varun: [24:59] Without losing sleep

Christian: [25:00] Without losing sleep, that's the title. Yes. Uh, so yeah, check that out because there are some great opportunities to do that successfully and less stressfully because it can be… There's a lot more moving pieces, and you gotta plan ahead. So- Yeah … um, definitely reach out, and we can help come up with a game plan for you to do that successfully.

Joanna: [25:19] Something cool that we're seeing coming from 2025 into 2026 is, like, more friends buying together. Mm-hmm. We have an episode on our podcast about, you know, you don't have to be married, you don't have to be in a relationship with someone, you can, like, get into a home with a friend. That is 100% doable. We're also seeing a lot of unmarried buyers, like- You know, marriage is on its way out. I'm just kidding, I don't know that. I'm not predicting that. But,

Christian: [25:48] like- Joanna's prediction, marriage is on the way out

Joanna: [25:50] Oh, my God, it's so old school, guys. Um, as I'm married. But, um, we are also seeing one of my favorite, uh, categories is single female buyers. Yeah. I know I am not one, but I feel very, very proud to see a lot of women feeling like they have the ability and confidence to move forward in buying their own home, and that's nationwide. That's not just in Seattle. Mm-hmm. But I have had some fabulous female buyers that are single, and- Mm-hmm … they got some great homes, by the way. Um- Yes … and then more intentional house hacking.

Christian: [26:23] Yeah,

Joanna: [26:23] yeah. Which I think is awesome. Yeah. The trend is not slowing down.

Christian: [26:26] No, no, and we've been preaching this for years.

Joanna: [26:29] Mm-hmm.

Christian: [26:29] I mean, you can listen back to my Seattle Real Estate Radio days, which was- … AM radio- … uh, way back in the day, and I was-

Joanna: [26:36] He was a pioneer, folks back in the

Christian: [26:38] day. Um, we've been talking about that for years. We've been talking also about buying in the path of progress, and how that is so important to help your, um, entire neighborhood increase in value, which is gonna help bring up your home value because of other improvements going on in the area. Absolutely. You were just talking about Tukwila, how it's gonna be one of the FIFA-

Joanna: [27:01] Oh, I'm

Christian: [27:01] gonna talk about it

Joanna: [27:02] again … uh, World

Christian: [27:02] Cup. Oh, cool. And how, but I think that's going to actually help the whole neighborhood home value go up as well. Absolutely. Yeah.

Joanna: [27:09] Absolutely. Um- Very exciting.

Christian: [27:11] Okay, so let's talk about, uh, our personal predictions. This is the best part in my opinion, 'cause it's really fun. Um, before we give our 2026 pre- predictions, let's look back at what each of us predicted in 2025.

Joanna: [27:23] Oh, God.

Christian: [27:24] So we're not lying about these. You can look at our 2025 or listen to our 2025 prediction episode to verify that we, these are the correct numbers that we predicted. So Varun, you said Seattle home prices would increase 5 to 8%, that North Seattle/Northeast Seattle would be the hottest market, and you are- Nailed it … 100% correct. Nailed it. Yeah. Good job. Um, so again, home prices, single-family homes did go up 4.3%. There was a little weirdness in those numbers because, um, that did not include DADUs or ADUs, 'cause technically those are condos. Uh, we did look at that, and you can look back at our previous episode or listen to our previous episode and understand how we came up with those numbers. Yeah. And I think it was actually more like 5%-ish.

Dan: [28:11] Sure,

Varun: [28:12] yeah. If not

Christian: [28:12] more.

Varun: [28:13] But yeah, that, that makes sense because, again, also my- Prediction was based on where do we see larger lots and where is new construction happening? Yeah. I, I just went it, went at it from a very investor and data-driven approach.

Christian: [28:24] Yep, and you were 100% correct. North Seattle, Northeast Seattle went up 8% last year, which was the hot- hottest market in Seattle.

Joanna: [28:32] Yep. Boom.

Christian: [28:32] Joanna, you predicted a 6% increase, so you were pretty dang close as well.

Joanna: [28:37] Close-ish.

Christian: [28:37] Yeah. Yeah. You said the hottest markets would be West Seattle and Burien, and they did go up quite a bit. They weren't the hottest, but they were very hot. I predicted 5 to 7%. I also said North Seattle- Ooh … would be the hottest, and I also said Magnolia, which was number two. Which was, yeah. Yeah.

Joanna: [28:55] I was about to say, solid.

Christian: [28:56] Uh, I also threw out the the anywhere you can build a DADU lot, which was also very, very true. Yes. Oh my

Varun: [29:04] God. DADU lots were overbid all over the place.

Christian: [29:06] They, yeah, they went just ridiculously over in a lot of cases, and some investors probably either made no money or lost money because they overpaid for a house that you could build a DADU in the backyard or side yard or whatever.

Varun: [29:20] Yeah.

Christian: [29:21] Yeah. Uh, Dan predicted rates would be, at the end of 2025, 5.75 to 6.25%. He was dead on. Mm. They ended right, a little over 6%, a little under 6.25, so he was, he was actually pretty accurate. All right, so now we're gonna do our predictions. So nationwide, what are you guys thinking is gonna happen with, uh, with real estate prices overall? We'll start with Joanna.

Joanna: [29:50] Oh, man. Okay. I think, um- Okay, I think the inventory's gonna go up a little bit.

Christian: [29:58] Mm-hmm.

Joanna: [29:59] But I don't see a huge growth, you know? You said stall a bunch- Mm-hmm … and I agree with that. Mm-hmm. Um, just because of everything that's going on geopolitically, um, I think that's gonna play a major part into it. Um, I would say it may grow 2 to 3% national- Okay … nationally.

Christian: [30:20] Varun?

Varun: [30:21] I'm gonna say nationally it's probably gonna grow 1 to 2%. My rationale behind that is we have so much leftover inventory from 2025, it's gonna take some time for all the sellers to kind of get through that inventory, especially some markets are struggling more than the others.

Christian: [30:37] Mm-hmm.

Varun: [30:37] So 1 to 2% is where I think we'll be nationally.

Christian: [30:40] Yeah, that's actually what I was gonna say too, 1 to 2%. Like, uh, Dave Meyer, who I think I can consider a friend, I've talked to him numerous times. We did a Instagram that will be posted on BiggerPockets soon- Nice … where he came to our house and we talked. Um, he ha- talked about the big, the great stall a lot. Uh, he talked about it on, as the keynote during the BiggerPockets Real Estate Investor Conference in Las Vegas back in, I think it was October. Um, and I, I kind of buy into everything that he talks about. So, uh, if you wanna hear more about that, you can also, he recorded a whole podcast episode on that on his BiggerPockets On the Market, uh, podcast, so go check that out. He talks about his 2026 predictions in there. Um, okay, let's go Seattle. Joanna, what do you think's gonna happen with Seattle home prices?

Joanna: [31:31] I think the home prices in the Seattle specific market are probably, I think they're gonna go up, I'm gonna go 2, 2%.

Christian: [31:42] 2%? Okay.

Varun: [31:44] I'm gonna be a little more aggressive at Seattle. I'm gonna say it's gonna be probably in the 4 to 6% range.

Christian: [31:49] Mm. I am also gonna go more higher. 10%. No. 97 per- no. I, I think it's gonna be- Amazing … I think it's gonna be in the 5 to 6%, similar to what happened in 2025. Um, partly just because of what we've seen in the first two weeks of Jan, three weeks of January, I should say. Yeah. Um, the last two weeks, so the second and third week of January, we've seen so much competition- Yes … all of a sudden. Home prices are going. Also, what we're seeing f- in terms of home buyer classes. Mm. So going, dating all the way back to October and November, we had packed classes. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Like, 30,

Varun: [32:31] 40,

Christian: [32:31] 50 people in a class, standing room only. Mm. And that is kind of the bleeding edge of what home buyer confidence is feeling like. Um, you can't really get that anywhere else. Yeah. And so when you have a room packed like that, that's telling me and us that there are a lot of buyers out there that are- Pretty sure they're gonna buy at some point- And then- in the near future.

Varun: [32:57] Yeah. Yeah. Did 42 in the last class. It was crazy. Yeah,

Christian: [32:59] 42 in- It was- … January … Varun: packed. So packed. So, um, because of that, I think Seattle's gonna continue to stay strong. Um, I just don't see it slowing down any time soon. Um, we also, we just don't have enough space, and we don't have enough inventory, and we have a lot of very well-paid people that are continuing to move here. Yes. We still have one of the strongest economies in the entire nation.

Dan: [33:24] Yeah.

Christian: [33:25] Um, we have a broad economy, too. It's not just tech, even though everyone tends to think of just Amazon and Microsoft. It is widespread. We still have Boeing. We have Nordstrom. We have- We have Starbucks … Starbucks. Yeah. We have so many different companies that are- Costco headquartered here. Costco, yeah. Um, it's not just one thing. It's so varied, and that has always, not always, but in the last 20 years, really helped our economy become kind of the jewel of the nation, um, and, and helped us stay afloat- Yeah … even during recessions and stuff. So, uh, okay.

Varun: [34:00] I would add, weather also helps. It's not harsh at all. Yeah. Mild winters, very easy summers. Mm-hmm. It's- Fall is lovely … not gray all the time, like people say. No. It's nice.

Christian: [34:11] But we tell people it's gray all the time so they don't all move here, 'cause once they come here, they're like, "Oh, man, this is beautiful." "This is great."

Joanna: [34:16] Yeah. Quite-

Christian: [34:17] Clean air

Joanna: [34:18] it's terrible. It's so gray-

Christian: [34:19] Exactly, rains every day … and

Joanna: [34:20] rainy.

Christian: [34:21] Um, uh, I'm gonna put a caveat as well on mine, in that this is really gonna be interest rate driven, what happens. Yeah. Mm-hmm. Um, President Trump wants interest rates for housing to go down. Uh, in May, Jerome Powell's term is up. He, Trump, is going to put a new person that he wants installed. That does not mean that they control mortgage interest rates, but it's another voice that is gonna do kind of his bidding. Whatever he wants to have done, he will try to get done. But- That one Fed chair is not the only person on the Fed that helps make those decisions. So there's numerous people on that panel, um, that are not necessarily all gonna agree with the Fed chair. So we'll see what happens there. Also, it will depend on what happens with quantitative easing. Like, the government has said that they are going to continue or start doing that, and when that happened during COVID, home prices skyrocketed, um, mortgage rates went down quite a bit, and buyers came out of the woodwork and just started buying. Home prices went up, up, up, up, up. So it could even go more than 5, 6%.

Joanna: [35:30] I don't want that to happen.

Christian: [35:31] I don't either. Yeah, I- I don't want that to happen at all. But that's what Trump wants, and so depending on what happens, that could be a factor.

Joanna: [35:39] Mm-hmm.

Christian: [35:40] Yeah. So we'll just have to wait and see what happens. I mean, it's always a wild ride.

Joanna: [35:46] Can I ask you guys something?

Christian: [35:48] Sure.

Joanna: [35:48] Sure. 'Cause I just wanna make sure that, 'cause I wanna talk about it.

Christian: [35:52] Mm-hmm.

Joanna: [35:53] Um, what do you guys think the up and coming markets in Seattle are?

Christian: [36:00] I think- Mm … a lot of the opportunities are going to continue to be where you can add value. Mm-hmm. This has always been the case- Yeah and it will always continue to be the case. So that could mean a house that needs a lot of work done, that maybe hasn't been touched in 40, 50 years, that, you know, needs to be updated. Um, or it could be- My

Joanna: [36:21] house. Go on.

Christian: [36:23] Yours is w- has 100% been touched lately. Yes,

Joanna: [36:26] it's lovely. Thank

Christian: [36:26] you. Um, your 3D tile in the shower is amazing.

Joanna: [36:28] Oh. And it hurts me.

Christian: [36:33] And it hurts you sometimes. The other opportunity is obviously the same as last year, DADU lots, ADU lots. The new housing laws that allow, f- in Seattle, and it really across the state, you can have at least two units per lot. Some places you can have four, some places you can have six units. So-

Joanna: [36:53] Pressure There's- Give me one neighborhood

Christian: [36:56] one neighborhood?

Joanna: [36:57] Yeah.

Christian: [36:57] I'm gonna stick with my neighborhood of Northeast Seattle. Okay. Varoom. I think there's, there's still a lot of room to grow there.

Varun: [37:02] One neighborhood. My neighborhood would be West Seattle, and I'll cheat a little bit, Beacon Hill, so that- Mm-hmm Uh-huh … south of downtown- Yep … portion of Seattle, I think that's where you're gonna see a lot more growth.

Joanna: [37:12] So mine is Delridge- Mm … specifically. Yeah. And South Park.

Christian: [37:17] Yeah.

Joanna: [37:17] In the Seattle more city area.

Christian: [37:20] Mm-hmm.

Joanna: [37:21] Suburb, Tukwila.

Christian: [37:23] Mm.

Varun: [37:23] Tukwila,

Christian: [37:24] Bellevue, and SeaTac. Selfishly chosen. Tukwila.

Joanna: [37:26] And I think Lynnwood too. Yeah. I think where the- Yeah … where the light rail is heading-

Christian: [37:32] Mm-hmm … Joanna: in the north area, I think- Well, it's already there that… Oh, sure. Yep. And it's, it's growing. Yeah. So. And it's super popular. Again, this is- It is … we're following without literally saying it, but the path of progress. Mm-hmm. That is where growth continues to happen. So along the light rail line, anywhere that there's major capital infrastructure improvements happening, um, those are the areas where home prices tend to follow because people wanna live there. Um- Yeah … it's so much more livable. The lifestyle thing, like we talked about before- Yeah … increases a lot. It's just a more enjoyable place to live, so more people live there, more demand, prices go up. That's just how it works.

Varun: [38:08] Yep.

Joanna: [38:08] Yep

Christian: [38:09] Okay. Good one to throw at us as a curveball, Joanna.

Joanna: [38:12] You're welcome, guys.

Christian: [38:14] So if there's one big takeaway, it's that 2026 is going to be not just a simple market, but more of a thinking person's market. You really gotta think about it. Your strategy matters. The design of your plan matters. Um, really understanding your buy box, where you want to be, what your price point is, what neighborhoods specifically, um, are there major streets you want to avoid. Like, all of these things definitely come into your plan of what you wanna do. Um, we love to help buyers figure this out. We love to help sellers figure this out, um, especially sellers that are doing the move-up, which we have helped so many people e- just recently, over the last year, become first-time sellers and buying that next property. Um, people that I helped, you know, 15 years ago or something like that, or five years ago, they're all coming out of the woodwork all of a sudden, wanting to make that next jump. So, um, if that's you, definitely reach out. All of our contact information is right on our website, AwesomeNossumGroup.com. Um, for those of you who won't, uh, be on the sideline and actually want to do something, you should just come to our home buyer class.

Varun: [39:26] Yeah.

Christian: [39:26] Again, they're totally free. Beersandhomebuying.com (opens in a new tab). It's a one-hour class, then we do some Q&A at the end. So at the end of the day, it's maybe an hour and 20 minutes, give or take, uh, long. There's free beer, free non-alcoholic drinks. Uh, some venues have food, some don't. Um, everything is free that we include. So, uh, it's, there's no pressure at these classes. It's super laid back. Um, we just want to help you, uh, succeed and make a decision. And we have reinvented the way that home buying happens. We did this a few years ago, and ever since we did that, our home buyers have had so much more success, 'cause we broke away from the standard way of doing things that everyone else follows, and we created our own roadmap for success, and it works so well, and we have hundreds of people, r- at this point, thousands of people that we have successfully helped down this new path. So if you are hoping to buy this year, please come to one of our home buyer classes, or just reach out and we can talk you through things, too. Um, that's it. Um, any last thoughts on your, on your guys' end?

Varun: [40:35] No.

Joanna: [40:36] 2026, let's go.

Christian: [40:38] Let's go. Yes. It's gonna be a fun year. It's gonna be an exciting year. There's gonna be a lot of change happening, so continue to listen to this podcast. We will always update you on whatever changes are happening and how it could affect you. Uh, but that's it for this episode of the Awesome in Seattle podcast. We'll see you next week.

Joanna: [40:52] Bye.

Christian: [40:53] Bye.