2024 Seattle Real Estate Predictions

Christian: [0:03] Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Awesome in Seattle podcast. This is your host, Christian Nossum of the Awesome Nossum Group at Wilson Realty Exchange, Inc. In today's episode this is a fun one One we always look forward to, one that is generally our most highly watched, listened to podcast of the year. And that is our 2024 predictions for what the heck's gonna happen in the Seattle area real estate market. So I am joined by the wonderful Joanna Beecher-

Joanna: [0:30] Hello … Speaker: of the Awesome Nossum Group. Of the Awesome Nossum Group.

Christian: [0:33] And the lovely- The lovely.

Dan: [0:33] I love

Christian: [0:35] it … Dan Keller-

Dan: [0:35] We're flipping- … of New American Funding. We're flipping roles, Joanna. Yes. You were lovely last time, and I got upset. Yep. And you're

Christian: [0:41] like, " Dan: Wait."

Joanna: [0:42] That's right.

Christian: [0:42] This time you're lovely.

Dan: [0:43] Sharing the love.

Christian: [0:44] Yeah. He's

Joanna: [0:45] always

Christian: [0:45] lovely. So, so Dan is a mortgage expert. He's a, a lender with New American Funding. I don't know what you wanna call yourself. What do you technically call yourself, Dan?

Dan: [0:53] I… Mortgage advisor, mortgage loan officer. Sure. Just keeping it real. We'll just say those things. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I could be like all these embellished names, but- Yeah … at the end of the day, you and I, we sell real estate and we do mortgages. Yep. And we do it really good.

Christian: [1:05] Yep, exactly. Mm-hmm.

Dan: [1:06] No need to embellish it.

Christian: [1:07] No, no. So what this episode is all about and what we're gonna cover today is first we're gonna go over what all of the national and local real estate experts, quote, unquote, "are saying about Seattle." Then we're gonna go national. Then we'll talk about rates. We'll talk about inventory and where we see that going, and how that's gonna affect everything. We'll also talk about rents a little bit and what we're predicting there. And then we'll talk about our predictions for what we think is gonna happen, and what areas in the Seattle area we think are gonna be the hottest. So it's, this is gonna be a good one. You should totally listen to this entire thing, 'cause you're gonna learn a lot. So, and if you are interested in learning really about all of it, the different predictions from all those experts, we've compiled them all, so you don't have to. You don't have to go out there and weed through it. We've done those hours of research to combine it all into one happy, easy listening episode for you. So let's get into it. So the Seattle area, what all the experts are saying. So realtor.com says the Seattle metro area will decline 1%, but the number of homes for sale will increase 3.9%. So they're thinking more inventory, but somehow that's gonna equate to a lower price.

Joanna: [2:22] I feel like that-

Christian: [2:24] Doesn't make sense okay.

Joanna: [2:24] I don't know.

Christian: [2:25] I don't understand that either. Zillow s- oddly did not give any Seattle specific price prediction, but they did say that they expect the number of homes to remain low, and the competition for those homes to remain strong. Redfin also didn't give Seattle area specific predictions, which is weird, 'cause they usually every year do this, but they have not. But they did say that there will be a wave of boomerang migration, and this is reverse boomerang migration- Hmm … where remote workers who fled the Seattle area are actually gonna come back because their job, most of them tech employees- … are forcing them to come back. So places like Boise, which is already seeing this happen, uh, where prices are dropping dramatically and somewhat quickly- That's gonna continue as people flee and come back for work. The director of Washington … Well, the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at UW, Mason Verant, expects home prices to tick up one and a half to 3% in Seattle and Bellevue. Matthew Gardner, who's the former chief economist at Windermere, he recently stopped working for Windermere, he forecasts that Seattle prices will increase around 3%, and I've heard that he's changed that stance. This is what he publicized a little bit ago. I talked to someone who just went to one of his, uh, in-person events, and I think he increased that a little bit, but I don't have Confirmation on that, so I don't wanna say that for sure. My take on this is that we will see slightly more homes for sale, but since we have had record low numbers of homes for sale in 2023, this won't be super noticeable. I disagree with many of the expert opinions, mostly because we're already seeing a difference in the market. Most of these predictions came out in, like, November and early December, when rates were still record high for at least the last, what, 30 years or whatever it's been. Since then, rates have dropped dramatically. We're in mid sixes to, yeah, mid sixes, I think is a fair thing to say, and since that happened, we have seen a flood of buyers and more competition. So I disagree that it's gonna be a slow, slow, slow year, but I'll tell you my full prediction later. But let's get into national, Joanna.

Joanna: [4:34] Okay. Well, national home price predictions. We're gonna go realtor.com first. Home prices are expected to drop 1.7%. Number of homes for sale is expected to drop 14%.

Christian: [4:46] Yeah, that's crazy.

Joanna: [4:48] Yeah. That is wild. Okay. Yeah,

Christian: [4:49] and to recap- Yeah … Seattle, they said, is gonna increase 3.9% in number of homes for sale.

Joanna: [4:54] Which is interesting, because we have… We don't sprawl, so- Exactly where they're… Okay.

Christian: [4:59] I don't, I don't know.

Joanna: [5:00] That feels like an odd prediction. All right. Anyway, Redfin predicts that home prices nationwide will fall 1%. Redfin said it expects 4.3 million sales nationwide in 2024, up 5% year-over-year, which would present a crucial difference between 2023 and 2024 as sales will gain momentum throughout the year instead of losing momentum. Mm-hmm. Zillow's latest forecast calls for home values to hold steady in 2024, falling .2%.

Christian: [5:29] 0.2%.

Joanna: [5:31] Yes. Did I s- not say that

Christian: [5:32] right?

Joanna: [5:32] No, you did. Oh, okay.

Christian: [5:33] But I'm just reiterating that they're thinking- Yeah … really not doing anything.

Joanna: [5:36] Not doing much, yes. Yeah. Okay.

Christian: [5:38] Let's go over inventory. So all signs point to another year of record low inventory in 2024. The reason why, according to realtor.com, 2/3 of homeowners have a mortgage rate below 4%, and more than 90% of people have a rate less than 6%.

Joanna: [5:55] Hmm.

Christian: [5:55] So this is inducing people to stay put, not to sell, not to move up and buy that next house. The ones that are deciding to move up aren't always selling, either. They're keeping their homes as rentals because they have these low interest rate. So the prevailing thought is, unless rates drop down into the fives, so starting with a five, many homeowners won't be selling. So we'll see if that narrative holds through true- Yeah … throughout the year. I don't know if I totally believe that, 'cause I see some people reaching out to me already, some past clients, saying that they are thinking of selling even though they have a 2% or 3% interest rate or a 4%, and that's just with rates- Hmm in the mid sixes. So we'll see what that means for buyers. What that does mean if you are a buyer is, with low inventory, and we saw this last year as well- You need to get your ducks in a row. So what I mean by that is you need to get all of your stuff prepared, and I'll explain what that is. You need to get prepared because when a house comes on the market that meets your criteria in your neighborhood, at your price point, has everything you want, when that pops up, you need to jump on it. With low inventory, it's… We saw last year sometimes that same house or a similar house did not pop up again for months, 'cause we just don't have a lot to choose from. So instead of waiting for the house to come on the market and then preparing, that's the wrong approach. You need to prepare ahead of time, be proactive, and get your ducks in a row. And what that means is talk to a lender. Get pre-underwritten. Get pre-approved, but also get pre-underwritten. If your lender does not pre-underwrite you, talk to Dan, Dan Keller, New American Funding. Text me and I'll give you his info, or just Google him. And get that done, because it could be competitive, and that's what we saw with some houses that are priced well in good areas, they're competitive. And so you kinda gotta jump on it right away. Dan, let's go into interest rate predictions and what's, what you're seeing and what kinda you're following to, to advise your clients, and what you did in 2023 to help them, the ones that were successful.

Dan: [8:07] Yeah. Yeah, I mean, in 2023, we, we leveraged information. Yeah. We leveraged data. I mean, I'm looking at it right now on my computer screen, and I'll throw this up on the screen for you guys. But, but data that you guys share at Beers and Home Buying class- Mm-hmm … data that we have, that we all study every single day, we knew that 8%, 7.5% 30-year fixed rates weren't gonna be here forever. Yep. Okay? We also know that the, the economy moves, real estate moves, financial markets move, and this was just a result, high rates was a result of the Fed trying to beat down and get inflation under control. Yep. So last year, okay, we talked about this in a previous podcast, last year and 2022, the key words were inflation, okay? We gotta focus on inflation. When the Fed can get inflation under control, we'll start seeing an ease in mortgage rates. 2024, I believe now that inflation is in check, you're, you're gonna feel the, mm, residual damage of what we've gone through over the last two years- Yeah … with high rates. Okay? I'm… We've, we've talked about this before, that credit card debt in America has topped a trillion dollars. First time in American history we've seen that. Yeah, yeah. We have a lot of Americans, 50% of Americans right now that are behind right now on a credit card or auto loan payment. Mm. 30 to 60 days behind. So that's not like, oh, oops- That's a big deal … I accidentally missed a payment. 50% of America doesn't just ab- accidentally miss a couple of payments. Yep. They can't afford it, okay? They're financially strapped. They're financially strapped because at one point in time they could afford it, but the cost of living got out of control. Yep. That will lead, in my opinion, to, and a lot of economists, to a recession. Mm-hmm. Okay? Which some believe that we're already in it. Some people think that we've been in it for the last two years. That will cool off the economy. And then the chart that I'm looking at right here, and we have this exact same one that you share at the home buyer classes- Yep … Beers and Home Buying, that these gray marks represent recessions. But look at what happens to mortgage rates and housing. After each one of these recessions, mortgage rates get cheaper. Yep. It fuels the housing market. It gets people out and optimistic about in, in, in real estate. Mm. So I believe 20- I don't think we're gonna see a huge drop in 2024. I think we're gonna see… Right now we are right in, if I pull up the Freddie Mac Survey, Freddie Mac Survey is the top 300 mortgage companies in America, and this week, January, this week, the week of January, um, 11th through the 15th, 6.6% for a 30-year fixed rate. Yep. Okay? Mid sixes. Yep. I am okay with that. If rates stayed in the mid sixes, maybe even in the lower sixes, I'm loving just since rates have dropped from the 8% range to this- Yeah … what it's doing to our clients- Yeah … and their confidence and their- Affordability, if you will, their buying power. So I think that, that personally, I think we're gonna stay in the sixes. I think that, you know, again, barring anything crazy with the economy, it is also an election year. Yeah. End of the year, right? And

Christian: [11:10] that could be a wild card, honestly.

Dan: [11:12] Wild card. Mm-hmm. Big-time wild card.

Christian: [11:14] Yeah. Either way, like, if Biden stays in, he could, as part of, and I've heard this as a rumor, part of his re-election strategy- Mm is to stimulate housing by offering incentives, doing something- Mm … to get more buyers out there. Yeah. If Trump or another Republican wins, they often do something similar where they're- Mm … gonna make it more financially and tax advan- Yeah … advantageous for people to

Dan: [11:39] buy. Yeah. So- And, and a big question, you guys, that's come up in my mortgage planning meetings and just when I'm talking with people because it is an election year, you and I were teaching a home buyer class during the last big one. Yeah. Remember when it was Hillary or Trump, right? Yeah. Yep. Obama was still in the office, and it was November of '16. Mm-hmm. Lot of talks around what will a party, a particular party, do to housing, do to- Yep … the economy. And both you and I were pretty level-headed on it because we knew. Yeah,

Christian: [12:05] yeah.

Dan: [12:06] This is really key to remember. If politics are on your radar relative to h- housing this year, okay, we've had Biden for the last four years. Mm-hmm. We had Trump the previous.

Christian: [12:19] Mm-hmm

Dan: [12:20] You know what you're gonna get- Yeah … right? Yeah. So it- don't speculate if, who, just know that whoever, this is what you're gonna get. Yeah. And neither of them really-

Christian: [12:30] They don't make huge changes.

Dan: [12:31] No. No. So don't let that get in the way. We talked in the, uh, year-end review, one of the things that I think crippled home buyers last year was fear.

Christian: [12:39] Mm-hmm.

Dan: [12:40] And letting things that are out of your control invol- get involved in the process. Don't let politics get involved in home buying. The housing market up here in the Seattle area is just, it's so opportunistic. Yeah. So I see rates… Well, why don't, let… Forget about what I see. I kinda told you what I saw. Let me go over what, like you did.

Christian: [12:58] Mm-hmm.

Dan: [12:59] National Association of Realtors predicts about 6.2 to 6.3- Yep … for 2024. Fannie Mae predicts about 6.2-ish.

Christian: [13:06] Mm-hmm.

Dan: [13:06] Okay? Freddie Mac is predicting about 6.2 to 6.3.

Christian: [13:11] Yeah.

Dan: [13:12] And Mortgage Bankers Association, put a little bit more, uh, emphasis on that one.

Christian: [13:17] Yeah, same.

Dan: [13:17] Right around 6.1-ish.

Christian: [13:18] Yeah. So they're gonna stay above six.

Dan: [13:21] Mm-hmm.

Christian: [13:22] And that's, I have right here in my notes from all the research I did as well. Mm-hmm. Fannie Mae, NAR, Redfin, everybody basically says they're all gonna stay above 6%. And I'd be

Dan: [13:30] happy with a 6% through the year- Yeah … right, Joanna?

Joanna: [13:33] Yes. Absolutely.

Christian: [13:34] Yeah. I'm gonna piggyback off of something that you said. You talked about how this was the first time that credit card debt- Mm-hmm … has gone into over a trillion dollars. Yeah. And how there's, what, 50% of Americans, what was the stat you said? 50% had-

Dan: [13:49] Yeah. Uh, are they're 30 to 60 days delinquent on an auto loan or a credit card.

Christian: [13:54] So I'm going to point out, because my brain immediately went, "Well, that means that there's gonna be a housing crash." That's where some people's minds could go.

Dan: [14:04] Mm-hmm.

Christian: [14:04] Mm-hmm. I wanna bring that up. That's probably extremely unlikely. Mm-hmm. And the big reason why is- Mm-hmm … because most homeowners have a ton of equity- Yeah in their home. This is not like 2006, '7, '8, really 2008, when the housing market crashed, and that was due to loose lending standards- Mm-hmm … from the banks. And that made it so that everybody was maxed out- Mm-hmm … on, like, leveraged to the max on their homes.

Dan: [14:36] Mm-hmm.

Christian: [14:36] They were… Anyone and everyone that had a hou- not everybody, but majority of people that lost their home, what they had done wrong was they leveraged their house as ma- Yeah as much as they could.

Dan: [14:46] Yeah.

Christian: [14:47] So they, if their house was worth 400,000, they had a loan for 400,000. That's right.

Dan: [14:50] Yeah.

Christian: [14:51] They didn't have much equity. We have a ton of equity now- Yeah … in homes. And a lot of that is because of the changes that occurred in lending standards after that, that the government put in place, where you actually have to qualify for a loan. You actually have to have a job. You actually have to have good credit. Mm-hmm. You actually have to have money. Yeah. Getting a home loan is not easy right now. It is hard, and it should be hard.

Dan: [15:13] Yeah.

Christian: [15:13] It should not be fill out something for 30 seconds online, and you're approved for a million dollar home loan, which is what some companies promote online, and that is completely false, but that's what they market as.

Dan: [15:25] Mm-hmm.

Christian: [15:25] That's just not gonna happen. So- Yeah … people were predicting in 2023 that there was gonna be this massive housing crash. They were rooting for it for some reason, 'cause th- I think only, mainly they wanted a, to be able to afford a house. That's, the housing crash bros- Yeah … as some of the people call them, were all rooting for that because they just wanted to be able to afford. It, it's not gonna happen. It didn't happen. Some people were predicting that in 2023. I think probably the same people are saying it's gonna happen in 2024, and the data just does not support it.

Dan: [15:57] You have to look at what- There's something … causes that, right? What would cause that? Employment. Yeah. Like, the reason why people are behind on their credit cards and their auto loans and not their mortgages is because they've got a low mortgage, and they've got equity there. That's the last darn thing they're gonna lose- Exactly … is their house- Yeah … with a low rate with equity. And so, you know, it's, it's, think of it this way. You, your total household income every month, let's just say is $7,000. And for the most part, most of Americans, it's fixed. Mm-hmm. It's fixed. Yep. So you've got your mortgage locked in, it's a 30-year at a low rate, and three years ago, four years ago you buy your home, you got your car, you got your credit cards. But all of a sudden, your gas goes up 200%, your milk goes up, your bread, your everything- Mm-hmm … the, you go to get your hair done, and that's when everything's gone up. That eats away at what's left over- Yep … and that's why we're seeing that. Yep. And that's why we won't see a housing crash.

Christian: [16:53] Yeah.

Dan: [16:53] You know? Those 68%, 67% of Americans have a 4% 30-year fixed rate or less.

Christian: [16:59] Mm-hmm.

Dan: [17:00] So and then now you got this build-up of want- wanna-be home buyers, homeowners.

Christian: [17:05] Mm-hmm.

Dan: [17:05] And you got these homeowners that are like, "I don't wanna sell."

Christian: [17:07] Yeah.

Dan: [17:08] So that supply and demand thing is there, but- Mm-hmm … yeah, the first thing that I think a lot of people have talked about is, okay, this is gonna lead to a crash. Is this gonna cause the housing market to crash? No.

Christian: [17:17] Yeah.

Dan: [17:17] You have to look at what, what actually crashed the housing market.

Christian: [17:20] Yep.

Dan: [17:20] And that's- Those aren't there … Speaker: yeah . Dan: Yeah.

Christian: [17:22] Not in place.

Dan: [17:23] Yeah.

Christian: [17:24] All right, let's transition to rents in Seattle. Joanna?

Joanna: [17:27] Okay. Well, with over 1 million multifamily units under construction in late 2023, asking rents could decline- Mm-hmm in those markets facing supply overages. More existing rental supply could also be offered by short-term rental owners facing excessive inventory- Mm-hmm … as well as existing homeowners opting to become landlords, like we talked about, especially if they can pull out some equity to help fund another home purchase.

Christian: [17:55] Yep. That's actually a really good point. Mm-hmm. We are seeing people use the equity that they had in their original home that has that lower rate. Mm-hmm. They're getting either a home equity line of credit or they're refinancing or they're getting a second loan, whatever it is, pulling some of that equity out to buy that next house, and then they're keeping that first one as- Yeah a rental So that's gonna add a little bit more supply to the market.

Joanna: [18:18] Yes. And realtor.com predicts rents to stay pretty stagnant or go down .2%. Hmm,

Christian: [18:25] interesting. All right, so let's get to the fun part, the part that everyone, I think, is waiting on, and that is our personal predictions- Mm … of what we- Mm … at the Awesome Awesome Group, and Dan Keller, New American Funding, predict for 2023. And Dan, I know you already kind of said it, but I'm gonna let you say it again in a condensed way. What do you think- Yeah … interest rates are gonna do?

Dan: [18:42] Yeah. What I think, I think we're gonna be right there in w- I think the cherry on top of the sundae would be 6. I think what we're probably gonna see is 6.25 to 6.5, where we're at, and maybe a, a, you know, up above, but then back down. But- Yeah … mid-6s to 6.25.

Christian: [18:57] Okay. Cool. Joanna, what is your prediction for what the Seattle area home prices are gonna do?

Joanna: [19:02] Oh, for home prices. Mm. I think, honestly, I think they may go up maybe between… I, I have to agree with the Windermere-

Christian: [19:10] Mm-hmm … Joanna: guy you were talking- Matthew Gardner, yeah. Yeah, him. Between 1.5 and 3%. Yeah. I'm gonna go a little more on a ledge, out on a ledge, and I think things are gonna go more like 3 to 5% price appreciation. Okay.

Joanna: [19:22] Okay.

Christian: [19:23] And part of that is because what I'm already seeing at the end, like literally last two weeks of December and early January- Mm … which we are now in the second week of January, I know this comes out at the end of January, but what we're already seeing is a lot more buyers entering the market. Still not a lot of, of inventory- Mm … which you don't really see in early January anyway. But I'm not predicting a ton of new inventory or additional inventory to last year. So add in all these new buyers, plus still low inventory, and you're gonna see more competition. That always increases home prices, and I see a 3 to 5% growth. I do wanna point out that last year you and I predicted basically a flat growth- Mm … for Seattle area prices, and it was. It was 1.3%. We both said 0 to 1%, basically. So we were right. So we'll see what happens this year.

Joanna: [20:14] Yeah.

Dan: [20:15] We

Christian: [20:15] always recap. Since- We always say what we did … Joanna: we're different this year. Yeah, we're different. Okay.

Dan: [20:18] Let me throw in asterisks though real quick- Mm … on mine. 'Cause I wanna, I wanna go on record and say this. I was on a webinar the other day with one of the top economists in the mortgage space, Dan Rawitch. Think I put a lot of faith in him. He has the Rate Watch app that I follow. Yep. All right. And he shared some data, really deep data, 'cause he's also a trader, okay? On, um, m- we have multiple inverted yield curves right now, and he said that because of that, his predictions are that that will impact the 10-year treasury and cause the 10-year to drop into the low threes, potentially upper twos- Mm … in 2024. If that happens, the chart that I'm gonna throw up on the screen right now- Mm-hmm will put mortgage rates into the fives. Wow. So I do wanna go on record- Yeah … saying I have some data here- Yeah … that if- If the tenure does drop and it's trending that way Mm-hmm … that we could see rates into the fives, potentially even lower but I really think this is gonna happen in 2025, not necessarily 2024. But here's my asterix- Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm … for 2024.

Christian: [21:20] Yeah.

Joanna: [21:20] I think that could get some people to give up their low mortgage rates. Totally. Oh, yeah. So I think if it, there's a five at the front-

Christian: [21:27] Yeah. Mm-hmm.

Dan: [21:27] Magic number

Christian: [21:28] is five. A lot more people are going to be sellers- Yeah … and buyers. Yes. And that could Do two things. It could actually potentially increase home sale prices- Mm-hmm … because there's more people out there. It could also do the opposite and not really decrease, but just add more inventory- Mm-hmm … which makes it more flat.

Joanna: [21:48] Yeah.

Christian: [21:48] So- Yeah … we'll see. This, this is gonna be an interesting year. Yes. Again, you throw that election in there- Yeah and that really is a wild card as well. I would love to see rates in the fives. I think that would really, really do a ton for the economy- Mm-hmm … and for house prices in general. Yeah. Yeah. And just help a lot of people afford to be able to buy.

Joanna: [22:08] Yes.

Christian: [22:09] All right, Joanna, what do you think the hottest parts of the Seattle area are gonna be in 2024?

Joanna: [22:15] My number one thought at this point is Everett.

Christian: [22:18] Mm. Mm.

Joanna: [22:19] I really think it's just, I think a lot of first-time home buyers see it as an opportunity-

Christian: [22:26] Mm-hmm … Joanna: where closer into Seattle feels like a lot of first-time home buyers are priced out. Yep. ' Joanna: Cause you just get more for your dollar- Mm-hmm … up there. And yeah, that's, that's a big one. And maybe more Renton. I just think just those caps. Yeah. Each- It's each side of the- Yeah … kind of the lake almost. But-

Joanna: [22:44] Yeah … Speaker: yeah, that makes sense. I'm gonna branch off of what I asked and say not necessarily an area, but I think what's gonna be the hottest thing selling is DADUs.

Dan: [22:56] Mm.

Joanna: [22:56] Yes.

Christian: [22:56] So DADUs, again, a detached accessory dwelling unit. They are going to be, in my opinion, all the rage, not just in Seattle, but more and more cities and the state in general is enacting new laws in 2024 to allow more construction of these- Mm … which is going to open up more homes, more inventory for sale, not enough to make a huge dent, but the ones that are out there, those are gonna be hot. 'Cause they're generally in very good areas. Yeah. Like more in, into the city, not necessarily in the suburbs, but closer in areas that people wanna live in, that are closer to downtown.

Joanna: [23:34] That could help certain first-time home buyers stay in the city. I just, like you said, there won't be enough to keep-

Christian: [23:41] It's not- everybody in. Yeah, it's not enough- But- 'Cause we still, even if every property in the City of Seattle that allows a DADU to be built was built- Mm-hmm … it's not gonna make- Still a- … a huge dent. Yeah. Wow. 'Cause there's just not as many as- Yeah … we would love to have. But it is gonna make a big difference, and I think those are gonna go up in value quite a bit as well, partly because it's unlike a townhouse where a townhouse you have shared walls. Yep. And they're like the full wall of the entire home. A DADU's detached. You have no shared walls. You're in a great location. Generally, the floor plans on these are really nice, and that's, that's my prediction. I think DADUs are gonna be super hot, continue to be super hot, and- Mm-hmm … as well as a, a great play for investors, like myself. I'm gonna try and build as many DADUs as I can in 2024, 'cause, uh, it just makes a lot of sense. Yeah. All right, so Joanna- Should you buy or sell in 2024?

Joanna: [24:36] Yeah, both.

Christian: [24:37] Both.

Joanna: [24:38] 100%. Okay. I think so. Okay. I think if you're, you're really outliving your space, I think this would be a great time because all the buyers that are coming on, you will If you sell it right, you'll get a great price. Mm. And as a buyer, I think, I think we talked about this in the last episode maybe, but I think you should've bought last year, but that's not the point. Mm-hmm. This year's gonna be great, too. You'll probably get, you will get a better rate most likely, and if you pick the right house, it could be a great deal.

Christian: [25:08] Yeah.

Joanna: [25:09] We can help you with that.

Christian: [25:10] Exactly, we can. And as the saying, the old saying goes, "Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate and wait."

Dan: [25:16] Man. Yeah.

Christian: [25:17] Real estate is a long game, long-term play. This is not a short-term thing. I know we're only talking about a one-year time span in this prediction-

Dan: [25:26] Yeah … Speaker: but real estate is not a one-year investment. This is a five, 10, 15, 30-year investment that you need to be looking at it in the big picture. And if you look at it big picture-wise and you don't look at it as a three-year term, you're gonna be… If you look back in history, you're gonna be fine. Like, you're gonna make money. You're gonna build wealth. It's a great way to go. I wanna share some just little tidbits and tips and some podcast- Mm … episodes that I want you to, as a listener here, to, to pay attention to just to wrap up this episode. So don't try to play the market. Buy when you are ready. So don't try to time it. I've never seen anyone time it correctly. The ones that time it correctly did it on accident. Mm-hmm. ' Speaker: Cause you just can't time it. So don't try to time it. Do what makes sense for you, and that is the right way to go. Again, real estate is a long-term asset, not short-term. Play the long-term game and you'll be fine. Stop wasting money on rent, and instead pay down this asset while getting the tax benefits, and listen to episode 114 to go over all the tax benefits of owning real estate. We interviewed Matt Bontrager with True Books, a CPA. Awesome interview if you need to understand taxes and real estate. This is an interesting one that I still, I see it pop up in my, like, Instagram and social media feeds, and that is that homeowners have 40 times greater net worth than renters. Yeah, I mean, Christian, I'm pulling this up right now, and this is just for a client that was trying to buy a $500,000 home in Everett. Mm-hmm. And I do a net worth analysis, part of our strategy sessions that we do. Yep. And in five years, buying a $500,000 home- With modest appreciation, they increased their total net worth by $243,000.

Christian: [27:16] Just in five years.

Dan: [27:17] Five years. Wow. That's what you were just saying. Yeah. Like zoom out a little. Amazing. Yeah. It's, it's incredible, so.

Christian: [27:22] This is why real estate is powerful.

Dan: [27:23] Yeah.

Christian: [27:24] Don't forget that you can get creative. If you wanna buy a house and you have some cash, or if you have family that's willing to gift you money-

Dan: [27:31] Mm … Speaker: that is totally possible. I'd say probably a third or a quarter of the people that we help- Yeah get gifts for help with their down payment. The biggest myth in real estate is that you need a 20% down payment. You don't. The average in the Seattle area is 5 to 7%. That's the average of all home buyers, not just first-time home buyers, but all home buyers, so keep that in mind. House hacking can be super powerful and help you afford a better house in a better location if you want. So listen to episode 88, all about house hacking. As of November 2023, we talked about this episode, episode 112, you only need a 5% down payment to buy a multifamily home now. That is a huge change. Even if you were living in it, you needed before to put at least 20%, if not more. That has now changed. You only need a 5% down payment if you're gonna live in it. So duplex, triplex, fourplex, you only need 5% down. The crazy thing is, an example that we give in that podcast is someone buying a $1.4 million fourplex, four units, they only have to put down $75,000. That's unreal.

Christian: [28:40] 1.4 mil. That's insane. Yeah. So listen to episode 112 to get all the details and the breakdown of that. I'm not necessarily saying that you need to buy a $1.4 fourplex- … but you could if you found one that cash flowed and made sense for you. If you're looking to invest in 2024, personally, I am currently flipping and building units in Seattle, and I really, I, I mean, I'm open to anything if it makes sense. I also have rentals myself, so I'm happy to chat with you if that is a goal that you have. Last, I know buying a home can seem scary. It doesn't have to be, es- especially if you are informed. So check out episode 110, where we go over the main reasons that we hear from buyers that hold them back from buying. It's all about being scared to buy. So check that out. We also have an episode about open houses. If you're going to open houses, you have to listen to that episode. I don't remember the number off the top of my head.

Joanna: [29:38] No, we weren't there

Christian: [29:38] Don't remember. Sorry. Yeah. Definitely check out open houses because that one, it can make or break your home buying experience if you do it wrong. Mm-hmm. So don't do it wrong. Check that one out. So that is it for this episode of the Awesome in Seattle podcast. We covered a lot today. We all love talking real estate, so thank you, Dan, the lovely Dan Keller. The

Joanna: [30:00] lovely. He is lovely.

Christian: [30:02] The wonderful Joanna Beecher of the Awesome, Awesome Group. Yes. Thank you so much for joining us. If you are interested in buying, please come to our home buyer class. These are selling out every single month now. We had 50 people at our last one. We have another one in a couple weeks. I expect another similar turnout. I think that venue can only fit, like, 35 or something max. So check out beersandhomebind.com. That's beers, like the alcoholic drink with an S, and homebind.com to reserve your seat, see where the next event is, and come. It's only an hour. They're super laid back. You get a ton of value from it, a ton of information, and it just makes it easy. We hear at the end of these classes so many times people say, "I came for the free beer. Kinda interested in learning about a house, but honestly, I just came for a free beer."

Joanna: [30:48] Mm-hmm. " Speaker: But I learned a lot, and I actually think I could probably buy in, like, a year or two." Yeah. And we're like, "Perfect." That is the whole point behind this. Yeah. We don't care. You don't need to be ready to buy right away. We're just trying to give you the info, and then from there, we help you build a one-on-one with us, help you build that roadmap so that you can buy in a year or two or three, or whatever makes sense for you. So that's it for this episode. Dan, how can people contact you?

Dan: [31:13] Yeah. You can go to my website, or you can just reach out to me directly, but mymortgageguydan.com. A lot of resources there. Yeah. Instagram, same thing, mymortgageguydan on Instagram. I always, uh, give rate information and market updates and stuff over there. Or just reach out to me directly on my phone. Yeah. 425-350-7136.

Christian: [31:34] Awesome, and you can reach out to us just by scheduling something right online. Our phone numbers, contact info is all on our website, AwesomeNossumGroup.com. If you wanna schedule with us, you can go AwesomeNossumGroup.com/schedule. That's it for this episode of the Awesome in Seattle podcast. We'll see you in a couple weeks. Bye.

Joanna: [31:50] Bye.